Nifty Intraday Analysis for January 17, 2011

According to my calculations, 5781.25 is a major resistance point for Monday. There is a high probability for the nifty to play below this level on that day. If ever it breaches this resistance point (and rises), the next resistance is seen around 5898.45, 5937.50, 5976.25 and 6015.60 points.

If the nifty falls, there are support levels at 5664, 5625, 5585.95 and 5546.90. The prices will touch these points and try to revert back to 5781.25.

Please bear in mind that this comment is applicable only for Monday.

The market has a geometry. I have calculated these values adhering to those principles. Let us see how it is faring on Monday!


Intraday Trading Lessons Learnt From Last Friday (07/01/2011)

You might be aware of the situation that occurred in the Indian markets last Friday. The BSE Sensex went down by 490 points along with the NSE shedding a hefty 143 points. It is true that I could make some profits because I traded with SBIN on that day. However, my other predictions (for TATASTEEL and TATAMOTORS) did not occur as anticipated.

People would take this in different manners. Most of the traders would look at the bearish market and postulate – no wonder his predictions did not work out. Let us say that I am a fighter; I like to know why my predictions did not materialize.

See, as cited in my earlier posts, my trading strategies are different. It is hard to state it as “unique”. I follow certain principles which were found (and successfully tested) by W.D. Gann. In simple terms, his predictions were always accurate. However, it did not happen likewise last Friday. So, either one of us must be wrong – either him or me.

Dear sirs; I am just a novice trader who got lucky. I met the right kind of people who advised me to stick to the trading strategies adopted by Gann. In other words, I am myself responsible for my predictions.

There is a fundamental aspect which Gann always used to proclaim. And it is nothing but the fact that there exists a unique relationship in between the price and the time of an entity. During certain intervals of time, a particular price (let us consider it as A) will act as a major resistance. The same price point A will serve as a major support point in some other time intervals. I failed to acknowledge this basic principle. Hence, my predictions for those scrips turned out to be wrong.

After understanding my mistake, I began recalculating the levels. I will speak while taking into account TATAMOTORS. 1250 was a major support according to my original (and flawed) calculation. I realized that it was a major resistance point when we take Friday into consideration. If I had known this earlier, I could have shorted at that price point and thus could have made additional profits on that day. The situation was the same when I did the calculations with TATASTEEL too.

Moral of the story: By now you may have understood why my predictions did not become fruitful on that day. I am facing a major problem now – I am fully aware of the price points; but, I am unsure whether they are supports or resistances. As mentioned, I am still learning newer concepts regarding this trading system everyday.

Come Monday (10/01/2011), I will begin posting the intraday trading levels on real-time basis. Let us see how far the market can play about with me!

Intraday Trading Levels for TATAMOTORS / TATASTEEL / SBIN (07/01/2011)

Friday is finally here. What are your plans for the weekend?

Once again, the support and resistance levels for today are still the same as listed yesterday. (The resistance levels are (R1)1304.70, (R2)1312.50, (R3)1320.30 and (R4)1328.15 and the support levels are (S1)1257.80, (S2)1250, (S3)1242.20 and (S4)1234.40).

For those who are wondering about the values being the exact same everyday – this was why I had posted earlier that the market has a certain geometry. Do you realize the validity of that statement? Everyday, the market repeats the same pattern. Now, how did I come across these values? Maybe we shall discuss it in detail some day later.

For the sake of illustration, I will post the intraday trading levels for TATASTEEL too. We are seeing good support at 679.70, 683.60, 687.50, 691.40. The resistance levels for the same scrip are 714.85, 718.75, 722.65 and 726.55. The target price when shorted or bought must be kept at 703.15. I do realize that on some days, it is virtually impossible to touch the mentioned target price. Hence, decide the target values accordingly. Exercise discretion when you do so. 🙂

Update 1 (11:18): The high volatility / directionless nature of the market is taking its toll. None of the values posted above were sustained. Yes, the scrips touched these values…hovered around them for sometime and fell drastically. Hey every day is not a profitable day, right? Feel free to take up the positions, if ever the scrips touch these values. These usually work (as you may have already realized from the preceding posts).

Update 2 (20:58): As cited above, the scrips touched none of the values. It was a dark day with the sensex shedding approximately 490 points and the NSE losing 143 points. Come Monday and let us see what is in store for us.

Update 3: So did I make anything today day trading? Well, I did. I traded with SBI. There was a strong support at 2578 point for this scrip. So initially I was long at this price point. After sometime, the price went past this point and fell down to 2567.15. I had kept my stop loss at 2568. I reentered the market once again at 2568 with a target of 2617. The target was achieved in no time. I was waiting for the scrip to touch either one of the resistance points (which were 2646, 2656, 2666 and 2675) so that I may short at one of these points. Unfortunately, the high price was 2642.

Total profits for the day = 39 points.

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