Probability Statistics For Pivot Points

The floor pivot points have always managed to fascinate me with their predictive capabilities. I do not explicitly use them to take any kind of trading decisions; however, I keep them handy to get some idea of the current price action.  Curiously, I have noted that the price action respects the pivot levels on most of the days.

A couple of days ago, I came across this article.

In this article, the author Jamie Saettele has managed to highlight certain interesting pointers about the floor pivot points.

He shows the number of times as well as the % of the time, each of the floor point pivot levels have managed to make the price reverse. Please be aware of the fact that he takes into account of the EUR/USD pair only; and that too for a predefined number of trading days.

Traders who are interested in learning more about the floor pivot points should definitely look into this article.


Preparing Yourself For The Oregon Driving Learner’s Permit Knowledge Test

I know too many people who are finding it extremely difficult to pass the Oregon knowledge test in their first attempt. These people have been driving cars in other countries for a good number of years; but for some reason all of them claim that the Oregon DMV knowledge test is a tad bit tougher than other states.

Recently, I managed to pass this knowledge test (the first time) without any issues. So did my wife. Yes, the questions they ask are tricky. The wordings are slightly convoluted / designed to make you choose the wrong answer.

Here is what we did.

First – go through the manual at least three times. Read slowly and carefully because all the questions they ask will come from the manual. It will be better if you read the manual a bit closer to the actual date you plan to take the test. By doing so, you will not forget certain essential details required for passing the written knowledge exam.

We used to read half the manual during the mornings and the other half during the evenings. As simple as that. The more you read the manual, the better.

Second – start attempting the practice questions that are available online. Here is an important point to take care of at this stage.

Most of the websites will feature the same set of questions. Do it two or three times and you will get that false feeling that you are all set to face the real DMV knowledge test. This happens because all the questions will appear familiar by the time you do it twice or thrice and you will be able to mark the correct answers even without reading the questions.

As it turns out, there are some websites that will keep on changing the practice questions every time you try to attempt them. These are the websites that you must look out for.

The practice tests present in helped us a lot to wade through all the questions the DMV might ask. This website has more than 500+ questions and you will have to keep on attempting them like there is no tomorrow.

Although I was a bit scared to take the test, as the questions started appearing in the knowledge test kiosk present at the DMV, I began to get that confidence back. Within 5 minutes, I was able to complete the knowledge test and was on my way back home (ok, maybe it took me 7 minutes or so – but you get the point).

Try the driversprep website and you will definitely be thankful to me for making this post. Trust me.

Day Trading With The Trend Or The Importance Of The Opening Price

Traders have their own opinions about trading with or against the trend. Most of them will try to catch the tops or bottoms.

The rest will try to flow with the trend.

Although many traders are more than happy to dole out this advice i.e. trade with the trend, most of them (including me) have their own versions or definitions of the so-called trend. After all, what exactly is a trend and how do you determine it at any given point of time?

I have read in a few forums where traders chime in regularly that it is easy to determine the current trend of the market. According to these self-proclaimed experts, if the price or the candlestick chart is moving downwards from the left to the right, then the trend is down.

Likewise, if the candlestick chart showing the price is moving upwards from the left to the right, then the trend is upwards.

Do bear in mind that this is just a mundane explanation which may or may not help you in the long term.

If someone asks me about the trend, I just look at the current price of the instrument and compare it with the daily opening price of the same instrument. If the current price is above the open price, then the instrument has an upward trend.

If the current price is below the daily opening price, then the instrument has a downward trend.

Bear in mind that I took the daily opening price as the reference point because I am primarily a day trader. You can take the weekly, monthly or even the yearly opening price as the reference point in order to come to your respective outlooks about the instrument.

Upon closer inspection of the stock market prices, you can jump to a sane conclusion. Every day, there is an open price. As time progresses, the price will begin to float away from the opening price.

In other words, the price will either moves upward or downward throughout the day.

On trend-less / choppy days, the price will keep on making newer highs and lows throughout the trading period.

The beauty about taking into account of the opening price as the reference point is simple. This is the only price that remains the same throughout the trading period. However, the high / low / close price can keep on varying throughout the day.

Trying to take trading decisions based on these variables (high /low /close) will put your trading career in jeopardy. Focus on the factor that is constant every day. That is the opening price.

Once the market starts, they cant change the opening price. But the high / low and the closing prices will keep on changing.

Just take some time to think through all these. I am just trying to condense the intricacies of the stock market into simple and understandable terms.

Take any chart depicting any time period. Take a look at each one of the candlesticks. In every candlestick, the close price will be either above or below the opening price.

Yeah, on some days, the close price might be nearby to the open price. We call such days as choppy or trend-less.

My question to fellow traders is this – cant you use this point (the open price stays the same throughout the respective trading period) to make profits in the stock market?

Every day, the market shows the traders where to go long or to go short.

Go long above the open. Go short below the open. It cannot get simpler than this.

Once you begin to do this, trading becomes easy and less of a stressful activity.

Just think about it and let me know in the comments.

What Everyone Should Know About Trading Financial Markets (Video)

I came across this video while going through a post in Reddit Forex.

Both beginners and experienced traders can learn a lot from this video.

EUR/USD Update: Volatile Trading Leads To Prices Surging Higher

Prices first pushed lower to take out last week’s low, before aggressively spiking higher, revising much of the prior downward leg. It seems likely that the bulls will be in control over the short term.1.1255 is the next upside target, with 1.1070 as support.

Certain noteworthy support and resistance values for the traders to bear in mind while placing their trades:

R5    1.1710 (24/August/2015 High)
R4    1.1560 (26/August/2015 High)
R3    1.1495 (15/October/2015 High)
R2    1.1375 (11/Feb/2016 High)
R1    1.1255 (15/Feb/2016 High)

S1    1.1070 (26/Feb/2016 High)
S2    1.0945 (9/March/2016 Low)
S3    1.0820 (10/Mar/2016 Low)
S4    1.0780  (21/Jan/2016 Low)
S5    1.0710 (5/Jan/2016 Low)

EUR/USD Update February 04, 2016

The breakout continues with the EUR/USD making newer highs every hour. 1.1305 is the next upside target for the bulls and all those who missed this money-making opportunity should try to initiate longs at around 1.1060.

Resistance and Support Levels For Traders

R5 1.171 (24 August High)
R4 1.156 (26 August High)
R3 1.1495 (15 October High)
R2 1.135 (22 October High)
R1 1.1305 (19 October Low)
S1 1.106 (15 December High)
S2 1.0985 (15 January High)
S3 1.081 ( 29 January Low)
S4 1.078 (21 January Low)
S5 1.071 (5 January Low)

Day Trading Against The Trend

Traders will always have their own rhymes and reasons to place the trades. In fact, they need to have a solid day trading strategy. Without a proper plan to enter and exit the markets, traders are simply risking their hard-earned money without giving thoughtful consideration into the process.

What I am about to post over here comes from my limited experience day trading the Nifty Futures and the EUR/USD. I am always learning and will continue to do so for the rest of my trading life!

Anyway, let us get into the core subject of this discussion. Should you place trade orders against the trend? Will it provide the traders with an edge over the rest of the crowd?

Buy the low and sell the high

Trading against the trend will allow the traders to experience a sheer thrill. And when the trade goes just as they had anticipated, they will feel elated. Good profits exists every time the market decides to reverse after making a high or low. If you manage to get into that trade correctly, it is possible to make a killing!

Too many successful traders think that trading against the trend is the aspect which allows them to stay apart from the rest of the group. Even the inventor of the candlestick chart, Homma Munehisa thought that catching the tops and bottoms will allow the traders to accumulate profits easily. Applying his techniques, it was possible for him to become one of the most wealthy person in ancient Japan.

Another prominent trader Paul Tudor Jones also emphasizes on the importance of trading against the crowd. Here is his testimonial – “I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.”

I would like to mention that W D Gann also focused on price reversals. Yes, he always asked others to trade with the trend; but he never practiced what he preached.

Murrey Math is a simplified version of Gann’s calculations. Murrey offers the traders an easy way to set the current price action in a rectangle, so that they can know when to sell / buy against the trend.

Trading against / with the trend – this is a decision best left for you, the readers. Always trade with proper stop losses and try to exit when you have made enough for the day.

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