Nifty 50 Index Weekly Trend (June 25 to June 29)

In the previous trading week, the index opened at 10830.20. It made a high of 10837 and a low of 10701.20. For the week, it has closed at 10821.85. The different between the opening and the closing price is just 8.35 points and that itself is indicative of the trend less nature of the index at this point of time. During such trend less times, the top and bottom hunters end up making a killing while the trend followers get killed.

10826.03 is an important value to take into account at this point of time. The longer the index manages to stay above this value, the better its chances of drifting higher. The longer the index manages to stay below this value of 10826.03, we can see it sliding further down to revisit the week’s low value of 10701.



Nifty 50 Index Weekly Trend (June 18 – June 22)

The Nifty 50 index opened at 10781.85, made a high of 10893.25, low of 10755.40 and eventually closed at 10817.70.

The longer the index stays below 10777, we can see it dwindling lower towards 10609 and 10404.

Else, if the index manages to stay above 10868, we can see the index rising towards 11025 or 11236.


Nifty Weekly Outlook (June 11 to June 15)

Throughout the past week, Nifty 50 displayed choppy price opening at 10765.95 and closing at 10767.65.

The high and low price made by the index was 10818 and 10550.90.

For the oncoming week, 10683.59 is the crucial level to keep in mind.

The longer the index manages to stay above 10683.59, we can see it surging even higher to test the previous week high value of 10818 and perhaps even to 11016.

However, if the index does not find support over at 10683.59, then we can expect it to test the previous week low value of 10550.90.

Nifty Weekly Summary (April 23 to April 27 2018)

During the last week, the index yet again made a higher high and a higher low on the weekly charts, thereby reaffirming the firm grip of bulls in the markets. Nifty also partially filled the gap down levels (10736.10-10702.75) caused on 5th February 2018, post which the markets had fallen sharply. The index has been ending on a winning note for the fifth straight week, fuelling the overall positivity. This valiant attempt to fill the gap is likely to revive investor sentiment further as traders who are stuck up in the stocks at higher levels are likely to get an exit and enter into fresh long trades. Technically, the index is likely to witness its first line of resistance around 10750-10780 zone crossing which the next zone of supply can come in around 10850-10880.

Whereas on the downside, if the index fails to take support around 10620-10600 zone, then the index is likely to witness meaningful supports around 10580-10530 zone. As the results season continues in full swing and with most companies coming out with their numbers mostly in line with street expectations, the overall positive sentiment is likely to prevail and get better unless a major catastrophic happening in the domestic or international arena comes to light. Globally, in a major positive development North Korea’s Kim Jong-un met South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, and became the first North Korean leader since the Korean War in 1953 to enter South Korea. The two leaders shook hands at the border pledged to start a fresh chapter in building ties between the two nations. This could put a halt to the threats of a nuclear war with the US and other allies, which was looming large for quite some time.

As far as the Banking index is concerned, BankNifty closed in the green, outperforming the broader benchmark index Nifty which also closed in green with a gain around 1.21% on the weekly basis. Technically, the index is sustaining above all shorter term and longer term moving averages like 21/50/100/200 day exponential moving averages. The index has given breakout from inverted head and shoulder chart pattern on the daily chart, thereby indicating that positive momentum is likely to continue in the days to come. BankNifty’s 14 day RSI is trading above its 9 period averages adding to our positive stance on the index. Another leading indicator parabolic SAR suggests the positive trend in the index. The index has tested the mean and is moving towards upper band in the daily chart suggesting positive momentum in the index.

Going forward, the supports for the index are placed around 25000-24900 and below it next supports are pegged around 24700-24650 zone, any breach below the level could bring about a fresh round of profit taking in the index. On the other hand, resistances are placed around 25750-25800 levels crossing which a possible retest of the second line of resistance around 26150-26250 may also be seen. The upcoming week is set to be an action packed week with a lot of macroeconomic data due to be released. Data pertaining to March eight Infrastructure Industries and April Manufacturing and Service PMI data will be announced. The Auto sales numbers will also be closely watched b market participants during this week.

Therefore, considering the overall positive setup we expect the Nifty to trade in a range of 10550-10850 with a view of adding long positions on declines. Traders are however advised to adhere to a disciplined trading approach at all times as volatility can spike up at any given point of time.

Nifty Weekly Summary (April 09 to April 13, 2018)

Benchmark indices ended the last week on a positive note on the back of strong global cues and ease in risk aversion amongst investors as trade war clouds shun away. The index witnessed seven straight sessions of gains which is its longest winning streak since November last year. Sentiment was also upbeat after retail inflation in India eased to a five-month low in March, but remained above the Reserve Bank of India‘s medium-term target supporting views that monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged till the next review in early June. On the other hand, broader markets have also participated in the recent up move ended with mild gains on a weekly basis. Globally, Asian and European markets traded cautiously in the last week ahead of the U.S. earnings season as investors pondered the implications of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of a global trade war.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tendency to change his mind over key policy and political issues has fuelled wild market gyrations in recent weeks. Investors were also reviewing mixed data from China which showed that March exports unexpectedly fell 2.7 percent from a year earlier while imports jumped more than forecast. While the figures pointed to robust demand from the world’s top consumer of crude, copper and iron ore, they left the country with a rare trade deficit of $4.98 billion for the month, the first since last February.

Considering the different sectors, private banking stocks witnessed buying across the board while IT sector performed well with a breakout of consolidation and leading the rally along with metal counters. Auto sector saw some muted efforts while PSU Bank index reversed after two weeks of consecutive gains. For the upcoming week, we expect markets to give initial reaction to the Infosys numbers in early trade on Monday and will hold key to decide the further market direction. India’s second largest IT firm Infosys reported a 28.2 per cent drop in sequential net profit at Rs. 3,690 crore for the March quarter. For the coming week, we can expect select FMCG, Financials and Auto stocks to trade with positive bias while high beta sectors like Metal and Banking will mirror the global market movement.

Going forward, investors will look forward to the earnings season which kicked off in the last week followed by the respective stock specific activity post declaration of their results. The market will also be reacting to US-France-UK joint strike on Syria, which could play a significant role in the near term and could impact the movement of oil prices in the international markets. Technically, Nifty has witnessed third consecutive positive weekly closing after witnessing sharp sell off from the all time high levels. We expect markets to take a breather after the recent rally and may continue to trade with positive bias in the range of 10300-10650 levels. In the derivative space, put writers have already started shifting their positions to 10300 strike where more than 52 lakh shares were written after the index breached psychological mark of 10400-10500.

On the flip side, the aggressive conviction in the Call writers is indicated by the fact that they are selling ATM call options of 10500 and 10600 strikes where more than 42 lakh and 30 lakh shares were written respectively. Medium term traders are advised to stay long in the market with a strict stop loss below 10300, and if Nifty closes above 10500 where the good amount of call writing is witnessed then the rally could extend towards 10600-10650 levels as well.

Nifty India Weekly Summary (April 02 2018 to April 06 2018)

The NSE’s Nifty 50 index ended on an absolute flat note with a gain of 6 points or 0.06% at 10,331.60 on Friday. While for the week, the index posted a gain of more than 2.00% to make the new financial year’s first week to start on a firm note. Though index gained more than 200 points for the week, it was chaotic and action packed week with lots of domestic and global triggers kept both bulls and bears on toes throughout the week. The volatility in markets in the last 10 days with huge gap ups and gap downs unnerved a lot of market participants. After a strong gap up and rally on Thursday, we have traded in a narrow band on Friday, heavyweights such as Infosys Ltd and HDFC Ltd capped the upside. Even the global sentiment soured on renewed fears of a trade war between the global economic giants, after U.S. President Donald Trump proposed more tariffs on China.

On the global news flow front, the retaliatory trade war between US and China made all asset classes to witness a roller coaster ride throughout the week. On Wednesday, China announced fresh tariffs on 106 U.S. products, including cars, whiskey and soybeans — less than 24 hours after the U.S. administration issued a list of Chinese imports that it would target.

Later on Thursday, President Donald Trump instructed the U.S. Trade Representative to consider $100 billion of additional tariffs on Chinese goods. The president added that the move would be appropriate given China’s “unfair retaliation,” although he left the door open for negotiations.

Coming back to home, our Reserve Bank of India held policy rates steady on Thursday has retained its neutral stance, while it has cut its inflation view for the current financial year. The MPC committee voted 5-1 to keep the repo rate and reverse repo rate unchanged at 6.0% and 5.75% for the first bi-monthly policy for 2018-2019 and reiterated commitment to maintain CPI at 4.0% within a band of +/- 2%. RBI remains cautious on account of potential upside risks to inflation from volatility in the price of crude as well as potential increase in minimum support price of farm products. Bond yields which remained high till March-end (7.623% on 26th March) have declined notably after the government announced lower-than-expected fiscal borrowings. The tone was far dovish than what we have expected.

On the funds flows front, domestic institutional participants still continue to bet on our long term equity cycle and have pumped more than 1500 crore over last five trading sessions, while foreign institutional players continue their selling spree in both cash and derivatives segments. Despite correction in equities over last two months, year-end tightening of liquidity and large number of equity IPOs, Equity-oriented, balanced, and ELSS schemes saw net inflows of Rs. 13,411 crore in March as compared to Rs. 21,294 crore in February.

Going forward, on the global front, the trade war between the U.S. and China may trigger more volatile moves for near term in all asset classes, while a prolonged retaliation may be one of the greatest threats to the world economy. While on the domestic front, with the results season kicking in, stock specific action is likely to be more from here on. Index major Infosys will be announcing its numbers on 13th April 2018. Barring inflation numbers which are set to be released on 12th, and no major cues lined up on the domestic front, we are more likely to move in line with the global markets cues.

Technically, with the Thursday’s strong up move, Nifty has moved above its very short term 21 days moving averages, while on a broader picture, we are still getting resisted at its 50 days moving averages. For now supports are placed at 10200-10220, and below it at 10100 levels, while on the upside, resistance is placed at 10400-10430, and above it at 10530-10550. Hence for the week, we expect Nifty to be volatile in the range of 10100 to 10500 with sideways to positive bias.

Nifty Daily Summary March 12, 2018

Today markets ended firmly taking cues from global markets. Positive US job data and easing geopolitical tensions in Korean peninsula uplifted the market sentiment. Nifty closed at 10421.40 up by 194.55 points or 1.90%. On sectoral front, all the indices closed in green except PSU Banks. NIFTY FMCG and NIFTY METAL outperformed the broader indices, while NIFTY BANK, NIFTY AUTO and NIFTY FIN SERVICE have under performed the broader indices. On stock front BHARTIARTL, IOC and ITC were the major gainers for the day whereas COALINDIA, AUROPHARMA and TECHM were the major losers. Advance and Decline Ratio of the Nifty was 47:3. India VIX closed at 14.49 up by 0.22%. Asian markets rose tracking gains seen in US on the release of jobs data. The US economy added 3, 13,000 jobs last month above forecasts while wage growth came in below expectations. Europe markets were trading in green taking cues from their Asian peers. Nifty has immediate support around 10340 levels and next support is at 10290 levels. Immediate resistance is around 10490 and next resistance is around 10540 levels.

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